A U.S.-brokered 28-point peace proposal released this week has touched off a political firestorm in Kyiv and alarm across Europe. On its face the document offers carrots — reconstruction money, market access and promises of security guarantees — but those enticements come tethered to demands that would force Ukraine to cede ground it can never accept: legal recognition of territory Moscow seized, a constitutional ban on joining NATO, steep caps on its armed forces and tight limits on Ukraine’s ability to strike military targets beyond its borders. Taken together, the package asks Kyiv to trade sovereignty and deterrence for uncertain promises — a bargain that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his military leadership and a majority of Ukrainians are poised to reject.
The reaction has been predictably fierce. Ukrainian officials have publicly reiterated that Kyiv will not surrender land, and European capitals — which were not fully consulted on the plan — have described it as dangerously close to capitulation. Senior EU leaders have signaled reluctance to ratify a settlement that cements Russia’s 2022–24 gains without verifiable, reciprocal steps from Moscow. That split — between a Washington initiative and a skeptical European bloc, with Kyiv refusing the core concessions — would not produce peace. It would produce a fragile, contested ceasefire at best and a fresh cycle of escalation at worst.
Why Kyiv’s red lines are red lines
Three components of the proposal are particularly toxic for Ukraine. First, the plan’s apparent acceptance of Crimea and swaths of Donetsk and Luhansk as “de facto” Russian would enshrine conquest by force into law — an outcome that contradicts Ukraine’s constitution, international law and public sentiment hardened by years of occupation and atrocities. Second, the insistence that Ukraine constitutionally renounce NATO membership forecloses Kyiv’s strategic option for durable collective security. Third, the cap of roughly 600,000 on Ukraine’s forces, coupled with constraints on long-range strikes, would neuter Kyiv’s ability to deter new Russian offensives or to sustain operations to recover territory. Each of these measures on its own would be politically explosive; packaged together, they are a non-starter.
Forecast: if Zelensky abandons the plan
Assume Zelenskyy rejects the draft and the EU refuses to sign on — a plausible scenario given public statements from Kyiv and Brussels. Here is a realistic and near-term forecast of how the situation would likely unfold:
- Immediate political fallout and a crisis of credibility.
Kyiv’s refusal will be cheered domestically but will also prompt urgent diplomatic finger-pointing. Washington will face questions about why it floated a plan so at odds with its European partners, eroding transatlantic trust at a moment when unity is central to deterrence. Some EU capitals that privately favor compromise might pressure Kyiv, creating an uncomfortable public drama. - No quick peace — and an increased risk of coercive Russian tactics.
With a deal off the table, the war does not end. Moscow, believing political pressure might eventually force Kyiv to accept losses, could intensify limited offensives, probing defenses along the contact line and pressing to consolidate gains to strengthen its bargaining hand. That coercive logic risks localized escalations, attacks on logistics and energy infrastructure, and increased targeting of border regions. Analysts already see Russia preparing for a protracted campaign if diplomatic routes fail. - An acceleration of arms and capability races.
Kyiv would double down on seeking the defensive and offensive systems it needs — including long-range precision fires, air defenses and ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance). That demand will generate fresh transatlantic tensions about what weapons allies are willing to supply, when, and under what rules of use. The result: an arms-supply scramble that increases the risk of incidents and miscalculation. - Continued sanctions, slower reconstruction and geopolitics of attrition.
If Europe refuses the plan, sanctions will remain the West’s principal lever. Russia, for its part, will accelerate economic and diplomatic outreach to non-Western partners — deepening ties with China, India and parts of the Middle East — to blunt Western pressure. Reconstruction funding for Ukraine will be delayed and politically litigated, particularly around the thorny issue of frozen Russian assets. - A prolonged stalemate — or worse.
Absent a deal that Kyiv can live with and Europe will back, the most likely outcome is a long, grinding stalemate: periodic fighting, recurring humanitarian crises, and a Europe perpetually on edge. In the worst case, miscalculation or a deliberate escalation to break the stalemate could produce wider conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders.
What must change for any plan to stand a chance
Any credible peace process will require three essentials: (1) Kyiv’s voluntary consent — not coerced capitulation; (2) concrete, verifiable, staged Russian actions tied to sanctions relief and reconstruction funds; and (3) full allied buy-in, so guarantees are not conditional on the favor of a single power. Proposals that invert this sequence — offering carrots while demanding irreversible Ukrainian concessions up front — will only deepen the war’s ambiguities and risks.
1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be reaffirmed.
2. A full and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. All ambiguities of the past 30 years will be considered resolved.
3. Russia is expected not to invade neighboring countries, and NATO will not expand further.
4. A dialogue between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, will be held to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
6. The number of Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its Constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its charters a provision stating that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
10. US Guarantee:
The US will receive compensation for the guarantee.
If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee.
If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive, coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory, and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked.
If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be considered null and void.
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.
12. A robust global recovery package for Ukraine, including, but not limited to:
Creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in high-growth industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly restore, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
Joint efforts to rebuild war-torn areas to restore, reconstruct, and modernize cities and residential areas.
Infrastructure development.
Mining and natural resource extraction.
The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
The United States will conclude a long-term economic cooperation agreement to promote mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, Arctic rare earth metal mining projects, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
14. Frozen Russian funds will be used as follows.
It is noted that $100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led reconstruction and investment efforts in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the volume of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
At the same time, frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remaining frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russia investment vehicle, which will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.
15. A joint US-Russia working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure the implementation of all provisions of this agreement.
16. Russia will enshrine in law a policy of non-aggression against Europe and Ukraine.
17. The US and Russia will agree to extend the nuclear non-proliferation and arms control treaties, including the New START Treaty.
18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under IAEA supervision, and the electricity generated will be shared equally between Russia and Ukraine – 50:50.
20. Both countries commit to implementing educational programs in schools and society aimed at understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:
Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.
Both countries agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education.
All Nazi ideology and activity must be rejected and prohibited.
21. Territories:
Crimea, as well as the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
The Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions will be frozen along the contact line, which will mean the de facto recognition of this line as the actual border.
Russia will give up other agreed territories that it controls outside the five regions specified.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces will withdraw their troops from the part of Donetsk region that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as the territory of the Russian Federation. Russian troops will not enter this demilitarized zone.
22. Once future territorial arrangements have been agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change them by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this obligation.
23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial purposes, and agreements will be reached on the free transportation of grain across the Black Sea.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:
all prisoners and bodies of the dead will be exchanged on an “all for all” basis;
all civilian hostages and prisoners will be returned, including children;
a family reunification program will be implemented;
measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of victims of the conflict.
25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.
26. All parties involved in this conflict will have a full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree “not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.”
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald Trump. Sanctions are provided for violations.
28. Once all parties agree to this document, the ceasefire will come into effect immediately after the withdrawal of troops from both sides to the agreed positions to begin implementing the agreement.
